Indonesia-Malaysia-Thailand Growth Triangle Vector Analysis

English

Abstract

This study simulates the economic cooperation of Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia. We investigated the accumulated direction of influence growth of economic in the three countries so that it can be seen the forecasting of the accumulated direction of influence of the three countries. This research took time from the beginning of the cooperation between the three countries, namely in 1993 until before the COVID-19 pandemic occurred. We intentionally committed 2020 due to economic turmoil which is quite difficult to predict, so in this study, we only take the 1993-2019 time period. This study uses real GDP in conducting simulations with secondary data based on the World Bank. Economic cooperation between Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand in this study is simulated by vectoring the economic growth of the three countries using the autoregression vector (VAR). By doing vectoring, it is possible to forecast the direction of impact accumulation as well as identify its relevance and direction of influence. From the results of the simulation process, it can be concluded that the three countries have the opportunity to strengthen each other economically.