The The International Trade and Supply Chains Firms in Russia : ARDL Analysis

English

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the influence of international trade and supply chain companies with related variables, namely tax revenues and high-tech exports in Russia. We use the World Bank as an additional source for statistical data, namely data from 2007 to 2021. Two alternative time series models will be used to investigate the following variables. Factors in this study include tax revenue and high-technology exports since it demonstrates a link between the two variables over both the long and short terms, with the dependent variable being the trade of Russian federation. We find that the factors that we estimate have various relationships with increased trade flow in Russia, in the short term the value of trade in previous years are still one of the important factors influencing trade this year, with tax revenue being the dominant factor influencing trade This year. The ARDL test finds that when tax revenue increases, it will provide a positive sentiment towards an increase in the value of trade in Russia. This is different from other variables such as current high-tech exports, where when there is an increase it will make a negative contribution to the increase in trade in Russia.