Impact Of The Russia-Ukraine War On The Indonesian Economy Based On Data On Indonesian Imports From Ukraine And The European Union In 2010-2020

English

Abstract

This research aims might look into some effect caused by Ukraine-Rusia war acording to data at Indonesian wheat imports from Ukraine and Indonesian Export-Import data with the European Union which have the potential to be disrupted due to the ongoing RussiaUkraine war. This research depends on secondary information from the Republic of Indonesia's Central Statistics Agency (BPS RI) and World Bank data. The World Bank and the Indonesian Central Statistics Agency have provided this data as a secondary source for 2010 to 2020. The following variables will be analyzed using ARMA. The variable we use is GDP as the dependent variable, Wheat Imports From Ukraine, Import From European Union, and Export to European Union as independent variables. We found that WIU (Wheat Imports from Ukraine) has an effect on GDP, IEU (Imports from the European Union) also has an effect on GDP, and EEU (Exports to the European Union) has an effect on GDP. The Indonesian economy, which is represented by the GDP variable, is influenced by the other three variables. So, economically, the war between Ukraine and Russia has had an impact on the Indonesian economy, especially in imports of wheat, as well as imports and exports between Indonesia and the European Union which have an impact on the Indonesian economy.