Growth, Population and Pollution: Understanding Carbon Emissions in ASEAN Countries

Abstract

This study examines the impact of human resources, population density, industrial activity, and economic growth on atmospheric carbon dioxide emissions in 11 ASEAN member nations from 1999 to 2022. Using a dynamic threshold panel data model and dynamic analysis, the variables are assessed to determine their effects. The research finds that the threshold value of human resources is 2.772, beyond which its relationship with other factors becomes significant. A human resources value of -0.057 indicates that increased human resources lead to a decrease in emissions. Population density (correlation of 0.332), industrial activity (coefficient of 0.007), and economic growth (coefficient of 0.297) are positively correlated with higher emissions. The baseline for carbon dioxide emissions is 1.113, serving as the model constant. The study suggests that while economic expansion and improved human resources can increase emissions, surpassing a certain threshold in human resources can significantly reduce them. This research provides new insights into the effects of industrial activity and population density on emissions, highlighting varying impacts from different development rates.