Export Dynamics and Inequality: ARDL Analysis of the Effects of GDP, Unemployment, and HDI in Indonesia

Abstract

Inequality in particular is still a major economic issue in every nation. This study uses data from the World Bank, covering the years 1990–2022, to investigate the relationship between exports and economic inequality. It does this by treating the GDP, unemployment rate, and human development index (HDI) as independent variables. This study examines the relationship between short- and long-term variables using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) analytic method as its model. The results of this research show that Indonesia's exports are not considerably impacted by the country's unemployment rate or Human Development Index (HDI). Furthermore, the export variable and the Indonesian GDP variable show a clear negative connection.