Dampak Makro Ekonomi Terhadap Stabilitas Keuangan di Indonesia

Sebastiana Viphindrartin

Abstract


Kondisi makroekonomi yang tidak pasti dapat mempenga-ruhi tingkat risiko kredit bermasalah pada bank. Pengaruh kondisi makro ekonomi terhadap NPL memiliki respon yang berbeda-beda untuk setiap sektor ekonomi. Tujuan utama penelitian ini adalah untuk mengetahui pengaruh faktor makroekonomi (inflasi, nilai tukar dan suku bunga) dan faktor spesifik bank (kredit) terhadap Non Performing Loan (NPL) BPR di Indonesia periode 2015 hingga 2018. Penelitian ini menggunakan estimasi Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) untuk mengetahui pengaruh variabel independen yang terdiri dari faktor makroekonomi dan faktor spesifik bank. Ber-dasarkan hasil estimasi VECM, tiga variabel yang berpengaruh posi-tif dan signifikan terhadap NPL jangka panjang yaitu kredit, inflasi dan suku bunga. Sedangkan dalam jangka pendek hanya ada dua variabel yang berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap NPL yaitu kredit dan suku bunga. Variabel inflasi dan nilai tukar berpengaruh negatif dan tidak signifikan terhadap NPL dalam jangka pendek.

Kata kunci: Bank Perkreditan Rakyat, Indikator Makroekonomi, NPL, Stabilitas Sistem Keuangan, VECM


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DOI: https://doi.org/10.52956/jmj.v13i1.27

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